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India’s Russia Dilemma: Strategic Balancing Act Draws U.S. Fire and Kremlin Warning

Tensions between India and the United States have flared up again, this time over New Delhi’s growing energy and defense ties with Moscow. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described India’s relationship with Russia as a “point of irritation” in otherwise strong bilateral relations between the two democracies.

Rubio made the remarks during an interview with Fox News Radio on Thursday, just a day after President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods along with an unspecified penalty for purchasing Russian oil and weapons.



While Rubio acknowledged India as a “strategic partner” and “ally,” he expressed frustration over India’s continued reliance on Russian energy. “What you’re seeing the President express is the very clear frustration that, with so many other oil vendors available, India continues to buy so much from Russia,” he said.

India has yet to respond officially to Rubio’s comments. However, its long-standing position remains unchanged: as one of the world’s largest energy importers, it must prioritize affordable crude to protect its domestic economy particularly its poor population from price shocks.

India’s Russian oil imports have surged in recent years, accounting for nearly 35–40% of total imports in 2024, a massive jump from just 3% in 2021. This shift was accelerated after Western sanctions were imposed on Moscow following the Ukraine invasion, making Russian oil significantly cheaper on global markets.

Rubio admitted he understood India's motivations, acknowledging its “huge energy needs” and the economic logic behind its crude purchases. Still, he argued that India’s continued imports were inadvertently “fuelling the Russian war effort.”

Despite U.S. pressure, the situation on the ground is shifting. Reuters reported that India’s state-run oil companies including IOCL, BPCL, HPCL, and MRPL have halted Russian crude purchases over the past week due to shrinking discounts. HSBC Global Investment Research also noted a significant drop in July oil imports from Russia.

India’s Petroleum Ministry, however, denied issuing any directive to stop Russian oil purchases. Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said last month that India could diversify its sources if U.S. sanctions disrupted Russian supplies, highlighting that India has expanded its oil supplier base from 27 to nearly 40 countries.

Analysts believe that even if India pivots away from Russian oil, the overall economic impact may be limited. According to ratings agency CareEdge, the price gap between Russian Ural crude and global benchmark Brent crude has narrowed significantly from $20 per barrel in 2023 to just around $3 now reducing the cost advantage of Russian oil.

Meanwhile, Trump's blunt comments have drawn a sharp response from Moscow. In a post on Truth Social, Trump stated: "They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care."

In response, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, took to Telegram with a thinly veiled threat, referencing Cold War-era nuclear strategy. Alluding to the Soviet “Dead Hand” a rumored last-resort automatic nuclear response system Medvedev warned Trump to think twice about what “dead economies” might really mean.

As geopolitical friction grows, India remains caught in a delicate balancing act navigating its strategic ties with Washington while maintaining economically crucial energy and defense relations with Moscow.

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